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Published:  2014-12-25 Views:  1403
Author:  karelnel
Published in:  Security/Sekuriteit
Harties Crime Statistics Up To 2013 – Part 2

Harties Crime Statistics up to 2013 – Part 2

A previous article gave the background regarding the statistics that are discussed below. They are representations of data that is freely available from the SAPS website, but the figures below tend to give a better perspective of the meaning than the mere figures. The figures below show the yearly incidences of different types of crime, the ten-year average (green line) as well as a two-standard deviation upper limit (Red dotted line). Any point above the red dotted line denotes a significant increase of that type of crime in that particular year.

Ideally we need population figures to calculate numbers of crime incidents per 100000 population, which will make the figures comparable between different areas. We do not have such population figures, and therefore we did the best we could by trying to show the TRENDS between our area, our province and our country for the different categories of crime. A few categories are addressed below.

1. MURDER:

Figure 1a: Hartbeespoortdam

Figure 1b: North West Province

Figure 1c: Republic of South Africa

Incidence rate of murder in Hartbeespoort for 2013 was perceptibly greater that the average value but the data does not demonstrate it yet as a sustained trend. Every murder is however one too many.

2. ALL SEXUAL CRIMES:

Figure 2a: Hartbeespoortdam  

Fig 2b: North West Province

Fig 2c: Republic of South Africa

The data  for Hartbeespoort displays an interesting trend – seemingly indicating that this crime is stabilizing at a specific level. It may be indicating that there are mechanisms at work in the community that ‘keep a lid’ on this type of crime. Possibly the SAPS Community Safety Structures as well as the victim empowerment center has played a role here.

3. ATTEMPTED MURDER:

Figure 3a: Hartbeespoortdam                              

 Fig 3b: North West Province                      

Fig 3c: Republic of South Africa

The strong growth in attempted murder incidents in Hartbeespoort fortunately has seen a possible reversal from the significantly high level during 2009/10. Possibly the SAPS has introduced measures that  contributed to this?

4. ASSAULT WITH THE INTENTION TO INFLICT GRIEVOUS BODILY HARM:

 

Figure 4a: Hartbeespoortdam     

 Fig 4b: North West Province                      

Fig 4c: Republic of South Africa

The steady growth in the incidence of this crime in Hartbeespoort is worrisome. Hopefully the trend reversal since 2010/11 can be sustained. A study of where and when these crimes normally takes place may help to identify “hot spots” where curbing measures can be implemented.

 

CONCLUSIONS:

The graphs will be allowed to speak for themselves and the reader is encouraged to study them thoroughly since they contain fascinating information. From the graphs it will be seen that a statistical working group that properly analyses these and other figures can be a wonderful instrument in the combating of crime. A next article will list the other crime categories in a similar way.

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KPJ Nel

2014-12-25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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