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Published:  2014-12-25 Views:  914
Author:  karelnel
Published in:  Security/Sekuriteit
Harties Crime Statistics Up To 2013 - Part 3

Crime Statistics for Harties up to 2013 – Part 3

Previous articles dealt with the origin of the data that is depicted below in graphical form. These are the official crime figures as published by the SAPS for the whole of the RSA on an annual basis. The figures normally draws much critique from the public every year, and though it has definite shortcomings, it is at least as basis for evaluating crime trends, as well as comparing trends between areas.

The info is contained in a formidable database that can be downloaded from the SAPS website, but unless one analyses the figures the data is normally unintelligible to most people. Merely plotting the figures already makes the data more understandable, since the human mind has a wonderful ability to recognise patterns.

Another four categories of crime, as reported in the SAPS database is shown below in graphs without much comment. The reader is allowed to make his own conclusions based on the graphs. Further articles will follow, depicting the other crime categories as well as discussing possible statistical processing possibilities.

The numbering used in this article continues from that used in Part 2.

5. COMMON ASSAULT:

Figure 5a: Hartbeespoortdam

 Fig 5b: North West Province 

Fig 5c: Republic of South Africa

The clear declining trend in Hartbeespoort is very positive but it is not understood why this trend is downwards while the more serious crime (Assault GBH) is increasing. Maybe the difference in the definitions make it difficult to discriminate between these two types?

6.  COMMON ROBBERY:

Figure 6a: Hartbeespoortdam                              

Fig 6b:  North West Province                      

Fig 6c: Republic of South Africa

The nice downward trend in Hartbeespoort seems to imply effective measures curbing this type of crime, and it may seem that the incidence is leveling out – indicating some kind of effective control

7. ROBBERY WITH AGGRAVATING CIRCUMSTANCES:

Figure 7a: Hartbeespoortdam                              

Fig 7b:  North West Province                      

Fig 7c: Republic of South Africa

The wide oscillation in the data for Hartbeespoort shows that this crime is not under control, and the trend may well be still upward, despite the drop since 2009/10. The mechanism is not understood why this crime is rising while common robbery is declining. Maybe the difference in the definitions make it difficult to discriminate between these two types?

8. ARSON:

Figure 8a : Hartbeespoort

Figure 8b: North West Province

Fig 8c: Republic of South Africa

The data indicates a steady growth in this type of crime, showing that it has not been brought under control. An analysis of what type of properties are normally damaged may lead to actions that can effectively curb this type of crime. It is unclear whether proper distinction was made between this category and general theft – eg. The theft of gate motors in Schoemansville.

CONCLUSION:

The crime data, as reported, contains a wealth of information that will only be revealed by skilled analysis. Many people consider such statistics purely as “history”, and not of much present value. These figures however, contains and hides crime patterns as they happened for the past 10 years, and if correctly understood, can reveal much about the methodologies of perpetrators of crime. It is such a pity that currently crime statistical data is not used as the powerful force-multiplier that it can be in the fight against crime. The SAPS, according to Col Jannie van der Walt, does have at their disposal a powerful database system that can do all these analyses and more, but in the interactions with the public (e.g. CPF meetings) there is nowhere evidence that this system is used to its full potential.

A follow-on article will deal with four further categories of crime

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KPJ Nel

2014-12-25


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